Fenerbahçe 0-1 Beşiktaş — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.66
6+ Goals
13%
6.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.87
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.45
X/1
17%
4.28
X/2
10%
11.85
X/X
12%
7.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.3
2/2
10%
8.69
2/X
8%
17.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.3 — our 13% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.5pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.0pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.1pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Beşiktaş EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -5%
2.13/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.97
+15% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -10%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
428 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
23.7 Crosses 17.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Beşiktaş
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.99 xG 1.15
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
349 Passes 230
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
07.12.2024 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
27.04.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
09.12.2023 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-3 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
02.04.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-4 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
02.10.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
08.05.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-1 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
0-1
AWAY Beşiktaş
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
388 Passes 225
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beşiktaş nicked a narrow win over Fenerbahçe 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Fenerbahçe at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 62% of the ball to Beşiktaş's 38%, shots finished 17-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.33 for Beşiktaş.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Fenerbahçe 0-1 Beşiktaş in the Turkey - Super League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 50%, draw 26%, Beşiktaş 25%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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