Beşiktaş 1-0 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.68
2-3 Goals
35%
1.93
4-5 Goals
29%
2.91
6+ Goals
13%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.34
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.7
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
8%
8.02
X/2
11%
4.68
X/X
13%
5.62
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.52
2/X
8%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.7 — our 10% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.5pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-5.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.0pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beşiktaş EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 53%
+20% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +22%
1.20/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.12
+20% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 82%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
15.5 Crosses 18.9
3.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beşiktaş
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.11 xG 1.93
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
244 Passes 334
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
09.12.2023 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-3 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
02.04.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-4 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
02.10.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
08.05.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-1 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
19.12.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-2 HT 2-1 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beşiktaş
1-0
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.12 xG 1.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
312 Passes 345
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beşiktaş nicked a narrow win over Fenerbahçe 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fenerbahçe at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Beşiktaş had 49% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 51%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.12 to 1.78 — on chances, Fenerbahçe could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.67 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?

Beşiktaş 1-0 Fenerbahçe in the Turkey - Super League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Beşiktaş 28%, draw 28%, Fenerbahçe 44%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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