Fenerbahçe 2-1 Beşiktaş — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.32 — our 28% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.75
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.5
X/1
20%
3.58
X/2
8%
13.35
X/X
13%
6.75
2/1
10%
21.1
2/2
9%
10.2
2/X
5%
19.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
66%
-13.8pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.4pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Beşiktaş EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
2.18/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/2.68
+19% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +102% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
22.1 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Beşiktaş
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.92 xG 1.21
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
305 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
09.12.2023 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-3 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
02.04.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-4 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
02.10.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0-0 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
08.05.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-1 HT 1-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
19.12.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-2 HT 2-1 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
21.03.2021 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
2-1
AWAY Beşiktaş
0.98 xG 0.51
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
448 Passes 199
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe nicked a narrow win over Beşiktaş 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 65% of the ball to Beşiktaş's 35%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.98 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.50 for Beşiktaş.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Fenerbahçe 2-1 Beşiktaş in the Turkey - Super League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 52%, draw 24%, Beşiktaş 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5
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