Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 30% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.05
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.1
X/1
15%
5.13
X/2 EV+ ✗
16%
6.74
X/X
9%
4.69
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.51
2/X
9%
12.35
Value flag · X/2 at 6.74 — our 16% vs market 10.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.7pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -34%
1.66/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.09
+33% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -61% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
22.2 Crosses 18.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Samsunspor
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.27 xG 2.35
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
358 Passes 169
72% Pass Accuracy 57%
25 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
09.12.2023 Samsunspor Samsunspor 4-2 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
19.04.2009 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-1 HT 1-1 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
29.11.2008 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-1 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa T1L
18.02.2007 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-1 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
10.09.2006 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
1-0
AWAY Samsunspor
1.31 xG 0.83
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
172 Passes 358
59% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa squeezed past Samsunspor 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kasımpaşa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 38% of the ball to Samsunspor's 62%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 1.31 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Samsunspor led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.60 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?

Kasımpaşa 1-0 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 41%, draw 24%, Samsunspor 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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