Cerro Largo 2-1 Plaza Colonia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.16
No
50%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.2pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.9pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.3pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Plaza Colonia EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.22/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.14
+3% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Plaza Colonia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.11.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 4-0 HT 3-0 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
04.06.2023 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 3-3 HT 2-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
16.04.2023 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
22.09.2022 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URUK
13.08.2022 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
19.02.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-5 HT 0-1 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs Plaza Colonia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo edged past Plaza Colonia 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Cerro Largo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Plaza Colonia led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cerro Largo and 2.17 for Plaza Colonia.

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs Plaza Colonia?

Cerro Largo 2-1 Plaza Colonia in the Uruguay - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs Plaza Colonia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Largo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 40%, draw 28%, Plaza Colonia 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Largo) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Largo) ✗ Under 2.5
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