Chapecoense 1-2 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 May 2026

Chapecoense
1-2 HT 1-1
Bragantino
📅04/05/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2026

Chapecoense vs Bragantino Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
52%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
17.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.36
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
10%
7.95
X/2
14%
4.42
X/X
11%
4.37
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
30%
2.57
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
24%
+1.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.5pp
52%
Away Win
49%
+2.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chapecoense v Bragantino — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 53%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.31/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.83
+2% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 82%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
21.4 Crosses 31.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 0.2

Chapecoense vs Bragantino Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Bragantino
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 1.82
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
331 Passes 461
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.09.2021 Bragantino 1-2 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
31.05.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-3 HT 0-2 Bragantino BR1
16.11.2013 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR2
24.08.2013 Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2

Chapecoense 1-2 Bragantino — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
1-2
AWAY Bragantino
1.68 xG 0.72
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
357 Passes 283
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bragantino squeezed past Chapecoense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bragantino as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Chapecoense had 55% of the ball to Bragantino's 45%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.68 to 0.72 — the balance of chances actually favoured Chapecoense.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Bragantino led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Chapecoense and 1.50 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Bragantino?

Chapecoense 1-2 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 26%, draw 23%, Bragantino 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bragantino), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Over 2.5
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