Santos 1-2 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 4 Jun 2024

Santos
1-2 HT 0-1
Botafogo SP
📅04/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Santos vs Botafogo SP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.92
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.2pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santos v Botafogo SP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 17%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.21/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.23
+110% / +107% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
374 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 78%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
17.1 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Santos vs Botafogo SP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
0.89 xG 0.78
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
408 Passes 297
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.01.2024 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
27.04.2023 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BRK
12.04.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-2 HT 0-2 Santos Santos BRK
29.01.2022 Santos Santos 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
11.04.2021 Santos Santos 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
11.02.2020 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU

Santos 1-2 Botafogo SP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
1-2
AWAY Botafogo SP
2.03 xG 0.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
22 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 0
303 Passes 200
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo SP edged past Santos 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Santos at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 59% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 41%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.03 to 0.29 — the balance of chances actually favoured Santos.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santos and 0.17 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of Santos vs Botafogo SP?

Santos 1-2 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 04/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Santos 55%, draw 24%, Botafogo SP 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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