Loudoun United 3-0 Hartford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 Jul 2024

Loudoun United
3-0 HT 2-0
Hartford Athletic
📅04/07/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
4.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
19%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.2 — our 32% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.4pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Loudoun United v Hartford Athletic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 32%
-14% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.36/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.88
-11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
16.2 Crosses 17.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Loudoun United
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.23 xG 1.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
381 Passes 272
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.07.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-1 HT 1-1 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
21.05.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 2-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
22.09.2022 Loudoun United Loudoun United 3-0 HT 0-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
08.05.2022 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 1-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
17.10.2021 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 1-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
14.10.2021 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-3 HT 1-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP

Loudoun United 3-0 Hartford Athletic — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Loudoun United
3-0
AWAY Hartford Athletic
2.24 xG 0.73
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
366 Passes 382
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United cruised past Hartford Athletic 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Loudoun United as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Loudoun United had 48% of the ball to Hartford Athletic's 52%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.24 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hartford Athletic led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Loudoun United and 1.33 for Hartford Athletic.

What was the final score of Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic?

Loudoun United 3-0 Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Loudoun United vs Hartford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Loudoun United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Loudoun United 45%, draw 24%, Hartford Athletic 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Loudoun United), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Loudoun United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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