Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction — Model Probabilities
Sacramento Republic v Las Vegas Lights — Team-Based Signals
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Sacramento Republic 0-1 Las Vegas Lights — Actual Match Statistics
Las Vegas Lights edged past Sacramento Republic 1-0 away from home.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sacramento Republic at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 53%, coin-flips both.
On the day, Sacramento Republic had 47% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 53%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.96 to 1.00.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.00 for Las Vegas Lights.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights Result & Final Score
Sacramento Republic 0 - 1 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 59%, draw 23%, Las Vegas Lights 18%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.