Sacramento Republic 0-1 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
13%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sacramento Republic EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 24%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.45/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.77
-24% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
21.7 Crosses 15.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sacramento Republic
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.69 xG 0.77
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
432 Passes 277
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.10.2023 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-0 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
30.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
21.08.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-1 HT 2-1 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
01.05.2022 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 1-1 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
06.09.2021 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-3 HT 1-0 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic USLP
15.08.2021 Sacramento Republic Sacramento Republic 2-1 HT 0-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sacramento Republic
0-1
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
0.96 xG 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
267 Passes 327
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights edged past Sacramento Republic 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Sacramento Republic at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sacramento Republic had 47% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 53%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.96 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sacramento Republic had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sacramento Republic and 1.00 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?

Sacramento Republic 0-1 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sacramento Republic win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sacramento Republic 50%, draw 25%, Las Vegas Lights 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sacramento Republic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sacramento Republic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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