New Mexico United 2-0 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 29% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-10.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +29%
1.53/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.14
-16% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
14.3 Crosses 11.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Orange County SC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 1.54
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
346 Passes 316
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
30.04.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
05.06.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-2 HT 0-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
27.03.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
02.09.2019 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-2 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
24.03.2019 Orange County SC Orange County SC 2-2 HT 0-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
2-0
AWAY Orange County SC
2.87 xG 0.40
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
365 Passes 230
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United beat Orange County SC 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 59% of the ball to Orange County SC's 41%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.87 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for New Mexico United and 1.33 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?

New Mexico United 2-0 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 48%, draw 27%, Orange County SC 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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