Green Gully 4-1 Melbourne Victory II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 4 Jul 2025

📅04/07/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
31%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
Over 2.5
56%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-13.4pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.9pp
31%
Away Win
19%
+11.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.8pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Green Gully EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory II EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
2.42/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.67
+6% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.7 Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Green Gully
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Melbourne Victory II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
29.03.2025 Melbourne Victory II Melbourne Victory II 1-2 HT 0-1 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH Green Gully vs Melbourne Victory II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Green Gully swept aside Melbourne Victory II 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Green Gully as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

What was the final score of Green Gully vs Melbourne Victory II?

Green Gully 4-1 Melbourne Victory II in the Australia - National Premier League on 04/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Green Gully vs Melbourne Victory II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Green Gully win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Green Gully 46%, draw 23%, Melbourne Victory II 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Green Gully), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Green Gully) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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