Dandenong City 3-3 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 4 Jul 2025

📅04/07/2025 · 🕒12:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
34%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.7pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dandenong City EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 43%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +15%
1.11/2.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.77
-29% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +94%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
288 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.9 Crosses 18.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dandenong City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY South Melbourne
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.64 xG 1.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
292 Passes 144
71% Pass Accuracy 55%
13 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2025 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-3 HT 1-1 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
19.07.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-2 HT 0-1 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
19.04.2024 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-4 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.08.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
07.05.2022 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
23.04.2021 Dandenong City Dandenong City 1-1 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Dandenong City vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dandenong City and South Melbourne couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dandenong City and 1.50 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Dandenong City vs South Melbourne?

Dandenong City 3-3 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 04/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dandenong City vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dandenong City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Dandenong City 39%, draw 27%, South Melbourne 34%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dandenong City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dandenong City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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