South Melbourne 1-2 Dandenong City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
29%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.4pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
21%
+7.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong City EU Bookmakers 24%
+15% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.34/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.88
+4% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 16.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Dandenong City
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.44 xG 0.64
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
144 Passes 292
55% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.04.2024 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-4 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.08.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
07.05.2022 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
23.04.2021 Dandenong City Dandenong City 1-1 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Dandenong City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dandenong City squeezed past South Melbourne 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was South Melbourne at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for South Melbourne and 0.25 for Dandenong City.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

South Melbourne 1-2 Dandenong City in the Australia - National Premier League on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 47%, draw 24%, Dandenong City 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South Melbourne) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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