Dandenong City 0-4 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒12:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
22%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+5.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-6.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dandenong City EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 57%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.21/2.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.73
-12% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +63%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.1 Crosses 22.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dandenong City
0W-1D-2L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.64 xG 1.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
292 Passes 144
71% Pass Accuracy 55%
13 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
07.05.2022 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
23.04.2021 Dandenong City Dandenong City 1-1 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Dandenong City vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne swept aside Dandenong City 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Just as the model leaned, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Dandenong City and 1.00 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Dandenong City vs South Melbourne?

Dandenong City 0-4 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dandenong City vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Dandenong City 29%, draw 24%, South Melbourne 47%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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