Heidelberg United 3-2 Moreland City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 19 Apr 2024

Heidelberg United
3-2 HT 0-1
Moreland City
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - National Premier League – 2024

Heidelberg United vs Moreland City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.25
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
13%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.63
Over 2.5
55%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
76%
-10.1pp
22%
Draw
15%
+6.9pp
13%
Away Win
10%
+3.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
34%
+10.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
66%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidelberg United v Moreland City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidelberg United EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreland City EU Bookmakers 12%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
2.76/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/2.82
+6% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
437 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
24.4 Crosses –
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Heidelberg United vs Moreland City Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidelberg United
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Moreland City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.07.2023 Moreland City Moreland City 2-1 HT 1-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
28.04.2023 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 0-0 HT 0-0 Moreland City Moreland City AVNPL
POST-MATCH Heidelberg United vs Moreland City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidelberg United nicked a narrow win over Moreland City 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Heidelberg United as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Moreland City led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Heidelberg United and 1.00 for Moreland City.

What was the final score of Heidelberg United vs Moreland City?

Heidelberg United 3-2 Moreland City in the Australia - National Premier League on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidelberg United vs Moreland City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidelberg United win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Heidelberg United 66%, draw 22%, Moreland City 13%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidelberg United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heidelberg United) ✓ Over 2.5
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