South Melbourne 1-3 Dandenong City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.6pp
31%
Draw
25%
+6.1pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-2.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Dandenong City EU Bookmakers 39%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.48/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.26
-14% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +31%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
264 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 68%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.2 Crosses 17.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Dandenong City
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.44 xG 0.64
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
144 Passes 292
55% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.07.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-2 HT 0-1 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
19.04.2024 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-4 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
13.08.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong City Dandenong City AVNPL
07.05.2022 Dandenong City Dandenong City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
23.04.2021 Dandenong City Dandenong City 1-1 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Dandenong City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dandenong City saw off South Melbourne 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 31% / 33% — and on the day Dandenong City made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for South Melbourne and 0.60 for Dandenong City.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

South Melbourne 1-3 Dandenong City in the Australia - National Premier League on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Dandenong City?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 36%, draw 31%, Dandenong City 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South Melbourne), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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