Libertad 1-3 Leones del Norte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 4 Jul 2026

📅04/07/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+4.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Leones del Norte EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+8% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.4 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Leones del Norte
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.83
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
329 Passes 194
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.02.2026 Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 1-1 HT 1-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-3
AWAY Leones del Norte
0.35 xG 2.87
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
221 Passes 350
7 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Leones del Norte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones del Norte saw off Libertad 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Libertad had 37% of the ball to Leones del Norte's 63%, shots finished 7-24, expected goals 0.35 to 2.87.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Leones del Norte?

Libertad 1-3 Leones del Norte in the Ecuador - Premier on 04/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Leones del Norte?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Libertad 42%, draw 29%, Leones del Norte 29%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Libertad), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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