Beijing Guoan 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
41%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 30% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.19
1/2
7%
23.15
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
11%
7.38
X/2
11%
4.58
X/X
15%
5.07
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.66
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+4.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-6.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua EU Bookmakers 51%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.16/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.46
-4% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
15.3 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beijing Guoan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.30 xG 1.31
59% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 HT 1-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
19.08.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-1 HT 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİN
19.05.2023 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 HT 1-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
25.11.2022 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 HT 1-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
26.08.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 0-2 HT 0-2 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİN
15.08.2021 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 4-2 HT 3-1 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beijing Guoan
2-1
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua
1.40 xG 1.71
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
396 Passes 333
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beijing Guoan edged past Shanghai Shenhua 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Shanghai Shenhua at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Beijing Guoan had 53% of the ball to Shanghai Shenhua's 47%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.40 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beijing Guoan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.33 for Shanghai Shenhua.

What was the final score of Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?

Beijing Guoan 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shanghai Shenhua win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Beijing Guoan 32%, draw 27%, Shanghai Shenhua 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shanghai Shenhua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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