Hradec Kralove 2-1 Mlada Boleslav — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.74
6+ Goals
10%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.3pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hradec Kralove EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mlada Boleslav EU Bookmakers 30%
+21% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -22%
1.17/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/1.67
+20% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 73%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.2 Crosses 12.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hradec Kralove
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Mlada Boleslav
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.69 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
211 Passes 249
66% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.05.2024 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 3-1 HT 2-0 Hradec Kralove Hradec Kralove ÇEK
24.02.2024 Hradec Kralove Hradec Kralove 0-0 HT 0-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
16.09.2023 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 5-1 HT 3-0 Hradec Kralove Hradec Kralove ÇEK
13.05.2023 Hradec Kralove Hradec Kralove 2-0 HT 2-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
07.05.2023 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav 0-0 HT 0-0 Hradec Kralove Hradec Kralove ÇEK
18.02.2023 Hradec Kralove Hradec Kralove 0-1 HT 0-0 Mlada Boleslav Mlada Boleslav ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hradec Kralove
2-1
AWAY Mlada Boleslav
1.02 xG 1.49
26% Ball Possession 74%
5 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
130 Passes 531
60% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 33
8 Crosses 41
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hradec Kralove vs Mlada Boleslav
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hradec Kralove nicked a narrow win over Mlada Boleslav 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hradec Kralove as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hradec Kralove had 26% of the ball to Mlada Boleslav's 74%, shots finished 5-22, expected goals 1.02 to 1.49 — on chances, Mlada Boleslav could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mlada Boleslav led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hradec Kralove and 1.50 for Mlada Boleslav.

What was the final score of Hradec Kralove vs Mlada Boleslav?

Hradec Kralove 2-1 Mlada Boleslav in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hradec Kralove vs Mlada Boleslav?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hradec Kralove win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hradec Kralove 44%, draw 30%, Mlada Boleslav 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hradec Kralove) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hradec Kralove) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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