Greuther Fürth 3-1 Preussen Münster — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.51
Over 2.5
48%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.46
No
50%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.6
2-3 Goals
41%
2.02
4-5 Goals
23%
2.64
6+ Goals
10%
6.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.6 — our 26% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.41
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1 EV+ ✓
21%
4.82
X/2
9%
8.42
X/X
11%
5.82
2/1
6%
20.8
2/2
15%
5.26
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · X/1 at 4.82 — our 21% vs market 16.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
36%
+15.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
64%
-15.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
64%
-14.9pp
50%
BTTS No
36%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Preussen Münster EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.3 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
3-1
AWAY Preussen Münster
3.15 xG 3.31
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
303 Passes 367
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Preussen Münster
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth got the better of Preussen Münster 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Greuther Fürth as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 47% of the ball to Preussen Münster's 53%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 3.15 to 3.31.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Preussen Münster?

Greuther Fürth 3-1 Preussen Münster in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Preussen Münster?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greuther Fürth win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 47%, draw 24%, Preussen Münster 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Greuther Fürth) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Greuther Fürth) ✗ Under 2.5
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