Ulm 1846 1-2 Kaiserslautern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 4 Aug 2024

Ulm 1846
1-2 HT 0-0
Kaiserslautern
📅04/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Ulm 1846 vs Kaiserslautern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.03
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
15%
6.16
X/2
8%
5.36
X/X
14%
4.79
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
20%
3.31
2/X
6%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ulm 1846 v Kaiserslautern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaiserslautern EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +0%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
– Crosses 22.3
– Yellow Cards 2.6

Ulm 1846 1-2 Kaiserslautern — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
1-2
AWAY Kaiserslautern
0.66 xG 2.11
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
277 Passes 279
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs Kaiserslautern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kaiserslautern edged past Ulm 1846 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Kaiserslautern found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 51% of the ball to Kaiserslautern's 49%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 0.66 to 2.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kaiserslautern's control.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs Kaiserslautern?

Ulm 1846 1-2 Kaiserslautern in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs Kaiserslautern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ulm 1846 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 38%, draw 25%, Kaiserslautern 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/25/38) ✓ BTTS Yes
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