Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 2-1 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
56%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
56%
Away Win
58%
-1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.1pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 62%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.79/2.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/0.70
-10% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / +21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
04.04.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 3-0 HT 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 BUL1
01.10.2023 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 0-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
2-1
AWAY Cherno More Varna
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 nicked a narrow win over Cherno More Varna 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Cherno More Varna carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 had 34% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 66%, shots finished 6-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 and 1.50 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Cherno More Varna?

Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 2-1 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 21%, draw 23%, Cherno More Varna 56%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
4 Aug 2024
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