Monterrey 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 30% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 34%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.50/1.00
-36% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / +39%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
Crosses 15.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.57 xG 0.85
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
365 Passes 337
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.03.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.10.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
30.04.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 4-1 HT 4-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
31.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.04.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
01.08.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
1-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.83 xG 0.55
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
472 Passes 244
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey and Pumas UNAM couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Monterrey had 63% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 37%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.83 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Monterrey and 0.67 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM?

Monterrey 1-1 Pumas UNAM in the Concacaf League Cup on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 39%, draw 29%, Pumas UNAM 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Monterrey), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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