Newtown 2-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - League Cup, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.38
Over 2.5
62%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.02
2-3 Goals
37%
1.95
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
33%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.37
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.78 — our 33% vs market 30.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
49%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-0.7pp
38%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.9pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+36% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
4.00/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/5.00
+122% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -65%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
410 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Newtown Newtown 5-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
01.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
07.10.2023 Newtown Newtown 4-0 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.08.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
02.12.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
30.08.2022 Newtown Newtown 2-1 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newtown and Caernarfon Town shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Newtown at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Newtown and 1.00 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Caernarfon Town?

Newtown 2-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - League Cup on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Newtown 49%, draw 23%, Caernarfon Town 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newtown) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newtown) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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