Newtown 5-0 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.2
2-3 Goals
33%
1.97
4-5 Goals
30%
2.72
6+ Goals
16%
6.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 30%
+12% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.81/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.62
+23% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / -10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
07.10.2023 Newtown Newtown 4-0 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
18.08.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
02.12.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Newtown Newtown GAL
30.08.2022 Newtown Newtown 2-1 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
09.04.2022 Newtown Newtown 1-0 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newtown cruised past Caernarfon Town 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newtown as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newtown had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Newtown and 1.00 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Caernarfon Town?

Newtown 5-0 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newtown win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Newtown 47%, draw 23%, Caernarfon Town 30%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newtown), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newtown) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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