Pontypridd Town AFC 0-3 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.07
6+ Goals
13%
19.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.07 — our 24% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
27%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
47%
Away Win
54%
-6.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-5.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.5pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 57%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.14/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.62
-87% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +80%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
232 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontypridd Town AFC
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Penybont
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GAL
31.12.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GAL
25.08.2023 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
23.12.2022 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC 0-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
27.09.2022 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 1-1 Pontypridd Town AFC Pontypridd Town AFC GAL
POST-MATCH Pontypridd Town AFC vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont cruised past Pontypridd Town AFC 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Pontypridd Town AFC and 0.60 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Pontypridd Town AFC vs Penybont?

Pontypridd Town AFC 0-3 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontypridd Town AFC vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Pontypridd Town AFC 27%, draw 26%, Penybont 47%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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