Osijek 1-2 Sibenik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
20%
2.88
6+ Goals
10%
8.19
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.58 — our 28% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.6pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.3pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sibenik EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.57/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.70
-3% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
24.6 Crosses 12.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Sibenik
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.58 xG 0.58
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
344 Passes 256
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 1-4 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
18.03.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
13.11.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-2 HT 0-2 Osijek Osijek HIR
03.09.2022 Osijek Osijek 1-1 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
20.03.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-3 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
12.12.2021 Osijek Osijek 3-1 HT 3-1 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
1-2
AWAY Sibenik
1.87 xG 0.87
77% Ball Possession 23%
31 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
16 Corners 2
570 Passes 118
89% Pass Accuracy 60%
41 Box Touches 12
56 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Sibenik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sibenik edged past Osijek 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Osijek at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osijek had 77% of the ball to Sibenik's 23%, shots finished 31-6, expected goals 1.87 to 0.87 — the balance of chances actually favoured Osijek.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Osijek and 0.50 for Sibenik.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Sibenik?

Osijek 1-2 Sibenik in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Sibenik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Osijek 53%, draw 25%, Sibenik 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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