Hajduk Split 2-1 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.25
Draw
22%
5.28
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.43
Over 2.5
48%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
21%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.08 — our 29% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
76%
-15.0pp
22%
Draw
16%
+6.0pp
18%
Away Win
8%
+9.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.9pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.54/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.54
-12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -13%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
419 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 72%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
23.1 Crosses 13.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.55 xG 0.54
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
386 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
11.02.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 4-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
27.10.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
13.08.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
19.05.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
12.04.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
2-1
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.67 xG 0.32
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
344 Passes 207
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 11
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split squeezed past Slaven Belupo 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 59% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 41%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.67 to 0.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hajduk Split's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.00 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo?

Hajduk Split 2-1 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 61%, draw 22%, Slaven Belupo 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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