Slaven Belupo 0-1 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒20:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.13
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
47%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.82
Over 2.5
38%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.85
No
63%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
3.23
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 38% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
21%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.6pp
47%
Away Win
54%
-7.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
51%
+10.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
49%
-10.9pp
37%
BTTS Yes
50%
-12.6pp
63%
BTTS No
50%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 58%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
0.91/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.77
-28% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -14%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
251 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
19.8 Crosses 17.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.36 xG 1.46
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
238 Passes 388
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 4-0 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
27.10.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
13.08.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
19.05.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
12.04.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIRK
18.03.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
0-1
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.00 xG 1.34
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
224 Passes 419
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 36
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split nicked a narrow win over Slaven Belupo 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 38% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 62%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.00 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.83 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split?

Slaven Belupo 0-1 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 24%, draw 29%, Hajduk Split 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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