Sao Joao Ver 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-2.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Joao Ver EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 49%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.47/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.08
-62% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Joao Ver
1-0
AWAY Lusitania FC Lourosa
30% Ball Possession 70%
5 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Joao Ver vs Lusitania FC Lourosa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Joao Ver edged past Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lusitania FC Lourosa at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sao Joao Ver had 30% of the ball to Lusitania FC Lourosa's 70%, shots finished 5-14.

What was the final score of Sao Joao Ver vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Sao Joao Ver 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Joao Ver vs Lusitania FC Lourosa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sao Joao Ver 32%, draw 26%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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