Nacional de Football 1-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.5pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.42/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.13
+18% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
226 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
4.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
24.01.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-2 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football HAZ
11.11.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-2 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
01.04.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
04.09.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-1 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
27.02.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
1-1
AWAY CA Penarol
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football and CA Penarol couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 54% of the ball to CA Penarol's 46%, shots finished 10-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol?

Nacional de Football 1-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 37%, draw 26%, CA Penarol 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →