Galway United 1-1 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.37
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
24%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.57
6+ Goals
9%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 29% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
21.45
X/1
15%
3.31
X/2
7%
16.6
X/X
10%
5.98
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
12%
14.6
2/X
9%
22.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
69%
-20.3pp
27%
Draw
20%
+7.4pp
24%
Away Win
11%
+13.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.8pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galway United EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -2%
1.13/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.20
-25% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +37%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
386 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.6 Crosses 14.2
0.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galway United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Dundalk
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.56 xG 1.08
38% Ball Possession 62%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
138 Passes 343
55% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.08.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-2 HT 0-0 Galway United Galway United İRL
24.05.2024 Galway United Galway United 2-0 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
23.02.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 0-2 HT 0-2 Galway United Galway United İRL
15.09.2023 Galway United Galway United 4-0 HT 4-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRK
27.10.2017 Galway United Galway United 3-4 HT 1-3 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
07.08.2017 Galway United Galway United 0-3 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galway United
1-1
AWAY Dundalk
0.51 xG 0.91
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
145 Passes 246
53% Pass Accuracy 63%
14 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Galway United vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galway United and Dundalk shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Galway United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Galway United had 42% of the ball to Dundalk's 58%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.51 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galway United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Galway United and 1.17 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Galway United vs Dundalk?

Galway United 1-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galway United vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Galway United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Galway United 48%, draw 27%, Dundalk 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Galway United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Galway United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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