Etoile Carouge 3-1 Stade Nyonnais — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.61
No
55%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.16
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
19%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 28% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-4.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.1pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Stade Nyonnais EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
Crosses 16.8
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Etoile Carouge
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Stade Nyonnais
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.77 xG 1.34
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
404 Passes 212
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
15 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.09.2024 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 2-4 HT 1-2 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV2
05.11.2022 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 2-0 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
13.05.2022 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 1-0 HT 0-0 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV1Y
26.02.2022 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 3-2 HT 1-1 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV1Y
04.09.2021 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 2-2 HT 2-1 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
01.05.2021 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 1-1 HT 0-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Etoile Carouge
3-1
AWAY Stade Nyonnais
2.62 xG 0.88
71% Ball Possession 29%
20 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
506 Passes 158
88% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Etoile Carouge vs Stade Nyonnais
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Carouge saw off Stade Nyonnais 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Etoile Carouge as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Etoile Carouge had 71% of the ball to Stade Nyonnais's 29%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.62 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Etoile Carouge had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Etoile Carouge and 1.50 for Stade Nyonnais.

What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Stade Nyonnais?

Etoile Carouge 3-1 Stade Nyonnais in the Switzerland Challenge League on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Stade Nyonnais?

Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 48%, draw 26%, Stade Nyonnais 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Etoile Carouge), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV2 More Switzerland Challenge League
4 Oct 2024
20:30 Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Schaffhausen Analysis →
21:15 Bellinzona vs Thun Analysis →