Amstetten 3-0 Kapfenberger SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.66
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
17%
4.85
X/2
14%
7.34
X/X
10%
5.65
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
16%
4.72
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.0 — our 6% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+6.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.8pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amstetten EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 32%
-14% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +25%
2.07/2.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.10
-4% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
246 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 72%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
18.0 Crosses 14.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amstetten
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 Amstetten Amstetten 1-1 HT 0-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
07.04.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 1-1 HT 1-0 Amstetten Amstetten AU2
22.07.2022 Amstetten Amstetten 3-0 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
18.04.2022 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-2 HT 0-2 Amstetten Amstetten AU2
01.10.2021 Amstetten Amstetten 3-0 HT 1-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
30.04.2021 Amstetten Amstetten 2-1 HT 2-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amstetten
3-0
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 8
POST-MATCH Amstetten vs Kapfenberger SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amstetten ran out comfortable winners over Kapfenberger SV 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Amstetten made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Amstetten had 47% of the ball to Kapfenberger SV's 53%, shots finished 18-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Amstetten had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Amstetten and 0.50 for Kapfenberger SV.

What was the final score of Amstetten vs Kapfenberger SV?

Amstetten 3-0 Kapfenberger SV in the Austria - 1st Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amstetten vs Kapfenberger SV?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amstetten win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Amstetten 40%, draw 25%, Kapfenberger SV 36%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amstetten), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amstetten) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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