Vitebsk 2-1 FC Minsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
73%
1.45
Over 2.5
27%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
27%
2.19
No
73%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
46%
2.08
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals
14%
6.19
6+ Goals
5%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.08 — our 46% vs market 41.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
24%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.4pp
34%
Draw
30%
+3.9pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.5pp
73%
Under 2.5
65%
+7.9pp
27%
Over 2.5
35%
-7.9pp
27%
BTTS Yes
42%
-14.6pp
73%
BTTS No
58%
+14.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Minsk EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.24/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.30
-12% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
299 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitebsk
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Minsk
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 FC Minsk FC Minsk 1-2 HT 0-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
13.08.2022 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
03.04.2022 Vitebsk Vitebsk 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
19.09.2021 Vitebsk Vitebsk 3-1 HT 0-1 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
08.05.2021 FC Minsk FC Minsk 3-3 HT 1-2 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
22.11.2020 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-2 HT 2-1 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitebsk
2-1
AWAY FC Minsk
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitebsk vs FC Minsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitebsk nicked a narrow win over FC Minsk 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 34% / 28% — and on the day Vitebsk made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (73%), no to both teams scoring (73%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitebsk had 44% of the ball to FC Minsk's 56%, shots finished 8-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitebsk had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vitebsk and 1.67 for FC Minsk.

What was the final score of Vitebsk vs FC Minsk?

Vitebsk 2-1 FC Minsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitebsk vs FC Minsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Vitebsk 38%, draw 34%, FC Minsk 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitebsk) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitebsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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