Fluminense 1-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.09
No
62%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
5.63
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.56
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
12%
4.79
X/2
9%
5.99
X/X
13%
3.47
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
14%
4.89
2/X
10%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.3pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.5pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.1pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +22%
1.32/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.12
+6% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +87%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 83%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
17.5 Crosses 18.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.97 xG 1.24
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
455 Passes 288
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
20.06.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
21.09.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
11.05.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
13.07.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-3 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
24.06.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BRK
10.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.62 xG 1.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
311 Passes 351
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 16
8 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Cruzeiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Fluminense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fluminense had 47% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 53%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 1.62 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fluminense and 0.50 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?

Fluminense 1-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 38%, draw 30%, Cruzeiro 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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