Cruzeiro 2-0 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Jun 2024

📅20/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.13
6+ Goals
9%
19.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 35% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.35
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
21%
3.94
X/2
9%
8.92
X/X
14%
4.43
2/1
11%
26.5
2/2
9%
7.37
2/X
10%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.8pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -17%
1.50/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.57
-17% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
23.8 Crosses 16.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Fluminense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.51 xG 1.14
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
293 Passes 438
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
21.09.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
11.05.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
13.07.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-3 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
24.06.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BRK
10.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
06.06.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
2-0
AWAY Fluminense
1.82 xG 0.31
35% Ball Possession 65%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
265 Passes 567
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
14 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro got the better of Fluminense 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 35% of the ball to Fluminense's 65%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.82 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.67 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?

Cruzeiro 2-0 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 48%, draw 29%, Fluminense 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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