Fortaleza 1-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Jun 2024

Fortaleza
1-0 HT 1-0
Gremio
📅20/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Fortaleza vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 30% vs market 29.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.55
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
11%
4.12
X/2
10%
8.06
X/X
15%
4.29
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
6.53
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-8.1pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortaleza v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.64/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.57
-5% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
21.6 Crosses 15.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Fortaleza vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Gremio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.42 xG 1.24
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
334 Passes 379
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
14.05.2023 Gremio Gremio 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
14.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
28.06.2021 Gremio Gremio 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
10.01.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
13.09.2020 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1

Fortaleza 1-0 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-0
AWAY Gremio
1.71 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
463 Passes 426
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza squeezed past Gremio 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Fortaleza had 52% of the ball to Gremio's 48%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.71 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Fortaleza and 0.33 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Gremio?

Fortaleza 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 42%, draw 31%, Gremio 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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