Juventude 2-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Jun 2024

📅20/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.33
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.2
6+ Goals
8%
32.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.33 — our 39% vs market 36.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.01
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.36
X/2
12%
6.95
X/X
12%
3.68
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
11%
5.8
2/X
10%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.8pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.4pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.3pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.3pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventude EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -3%
1.39/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.37
-31% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
24.9 Crosses 18.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventude
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
07.11.2009 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
01.08.2009 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 1-2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
04.10.2007 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
08.07.2007 Juventude Juventude 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
12.11.2006 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
13.08.2006 Juventude Juventude 0-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventude
2-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.34 xG 0.32
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
370 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Juventude vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude got the better of Vasco da Gama 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Juventude found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Juventude had 55% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 45%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.34 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Juventude and 0.83 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Juventude vs Vasco da Gama?

Juventude 2-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventude vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Juventude win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Juventude 40%, draw 30%, Vasco da Gama 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Juventude), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Juventude) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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