Sao Paulo 0-1 Cuiaba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 20 Jun 2024

📅20/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.4
No
63%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.82
6+ Goals
7%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.8pp
37%
BTTS Yes
38%
-0.4pp
63%
BTTS No
62%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 17%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +7%
1.73/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.20
+1% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +32%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
24.4 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Cuiaba
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 1.12
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
527 Passes 218
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
23.07.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 2-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
05.09.2022 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
15.05.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 0-1 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
12.10.2021 Cuiaba Cuiaba 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
24.06.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 2-2 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
0-1
AWAY Cuiaba
0.87 xG 0.48
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
559 Passes 250
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 16
32 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cuiaba edged past Sao Paulo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 66% of the ball to Cuiaba's 34%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 0.87 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.00 for Cuiaba.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?

Sao Paulo 0-1 Cuiaba in the Brazil - Serie A on 20/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 50%, draw 28%, Cuiaba 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sao Paulo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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