04/10/2024
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
1-0
USM Oujda vs KAC Kenitra Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
39%
4-5
18%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
20%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Under 2.5
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
31%
Draw
31%
33%
Away Win
32%
61%
Under 2.5
62%
39%
Over 2.5
38%
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
58%
BTTS No
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
USM Oujda v KAC Kenitra — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
USM Oujda
EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY
KAC Kenitra
EU Bookmakers 36%
+15% /
+15%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
+21%
/
+68%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
12
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
3
226 · 68%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
357 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
USM Oujda vs KAC Kenitra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
USM Oujda squeezed past KAC Kenitra 2-1.
Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) promised a tight game; USM Oujda found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of USM Oujda vs KAC Kenitra?
USM Oujda 2-1 KAC Kenitra in the Morocco - Botola 2 on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for USM Oujda vs KAC Kenitra?
Before kick-off our model rated a USM Oujda win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split USM Oujda 36%, draw 31%, KAC Kenitra 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (USM Oujda) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (USM Oujda)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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FAS2
More Morocco - Botola 2
4 Oct 2024