Istra 1961 2-1 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 4 Oct 2024

Istra 1961
2-1 HT 2-0
Osijek
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2024/2025

Istra 1961 vs Osijek Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
34%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 32% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+6.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
42%
-8.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Istra 1961 v Osijek — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 46%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -6%
1.10/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.39
+11% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
13.3 Crosses 16.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Istra 1961 vs Osijek Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Osijek
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.18
49% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
275 Passes 296
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
10.02.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
28.10.2023 Osijek Osijek 3-1 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
13.08.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 4-4 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
26.04.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
18.02.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR

Istra 1961 2-1 Osijek — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
2-1
AWAY Osijek
0.76 xG 0.61
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 9
188 Passes 342
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 17
4 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 squeezed past Osijek 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Istra 1961 found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 38% of the ball to Osijek's 62%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.76 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.50 for Osijek.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs Osijek?

Istra 1961 2-1 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 36%, draw 30%, Osijek 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Istra 1961) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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