Grobina 1-4 Valmiera / BSS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
20%
4.49
Away Pick
59%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.43
Over
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
37%
4-5
25%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
33%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Valmiera / BSS win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+6.9pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.0pp
59%
Away Win
67%
-7.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 71%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -7%
1.99/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/0.98
+77% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 77%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.0
14.0 Crosses 29.6
4.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.29 xG 1.77
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 26
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
123 Passes 438
55% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 46
12 Crosses 39
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.07.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 0-0 HT 0-0 Grobina Grobina LET
20.05.2024 Grobina Grobina 0-2 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
09.04.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 1-1 HT 0-1 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
1-4
AWAY Valmiera / BSS
0.69 xG 3.27
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 5
187 Passes 485
65% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 43
15 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Grobina vs Valmiera / BSS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera / BSS ran out comfortable winners over Grobina 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valmiera / BSS as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Grobina had 33% of the ball to Valmiera / BSS's 67%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.69 to 3.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Grobina and 1.00 for Valmiera / BSS.

What was the final score of Grobina vs Valmiera / BSS?

Grobina 1-4 Valmiera / BSS in the Latvia - Virsliga on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs Valmiera / BSS?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Grobina 21%, draw 20%, Valmiera / BSS 59%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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