Widzew Lodz 0-1 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.8
6+ Goals
8%
16.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 32% vs market 26.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.5
X/1
10%
4.35
X/2
7%
7.65
X/X
11%
4.46
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.87
2/X
10%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.31/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.09
-15% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
351 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
25.6 Crosses 19.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Widzew Lodz
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.00 xG 1.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
336 Passes 245
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.04.2024 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 3-1 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
22.09.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 1-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
27.05.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 0-3 HT 0-2 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
12.11.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
26.04.2022 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-2 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL1
15.10.2021 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Widzew Lodz
0-1
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.09 xG 2.02
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
381 Passes 186
81% Pass Accuracy 66%
25 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce squeezed past Widzew Lodz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Widzew Lodz at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Widzew Lodz had 63% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 37%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.09 to 2.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Widzew Lodz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Widzew Lodz and 1.17 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce?

Widzew Lodz 0-1 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Widzew Lodz win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Widzew Lodz 47%, draw 27%, Korona Kielce 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Widzew Lodz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Widzew Lodz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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