Widzew Lodz 3-1 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.08
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.8
6+ Goals
8%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 30% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.87
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
16%
4.6
X/2
14%
7.04
X/X
12%
4.37
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
14%
5.26
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.39/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.01
-16% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 71%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
26.8 Crosses 21.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Widzew Lodz
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Korona Kielce
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.91 xG 1.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
309 Passes 252
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 1-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
27.05.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 0-3 HT 0-2 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
12.11.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
26.04.2022 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-2 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL1
15.10.2021 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL1
04.06.2021 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 1-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Widzew Lodz
3-1
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.26 xG 1.55
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 9
417 Passes 226
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Widzew Lodz saw off Korona Kielce 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Widzew Lodz as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Widzew Lodz had 61% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 39%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.26 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Widzew Lodz and 1.17 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce?

Widzew Lodz 3-1 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Widzew Lodz vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Widzew Lodz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Widzew Lodz 41%, draw 26%, Korona Kielce 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Widzew Lodz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Widzew Lodz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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