AFC Hornchurch 1-1 Horsham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.59
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.08
6+ Goals
9%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 31% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Horsham EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.64/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.75
-8% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +98%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Hornchurch
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Horsham
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
12.08.2023 Horsham Horsham 1-2 HT 0-1 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Hornchurch
1-1
AWAY Horsham
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs Horsham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch and Horsham shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Hornchurch at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AFC Hornchurch had 54% of the ball to Horsham's 46%, shots finished 10-7.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Horsham?

AFC Hornchurch 1-1 Horsham in the England - Conference on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Horsham?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 51%, draw 26%, Horsham 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) ✓ Under 2.5
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