IK Brage 1-3 Kalmar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
51%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.84
6+ Goals
9%
8.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.05
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.8
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
13%
10.6
X/2
17%
4.28
X/X
11%
5.98
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
25%
2.02
2/X
7%
14.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.8 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+5.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
51%
Away Win
58%
-6.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IK Brage EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Kalmar EU Bookmakers 62%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.42/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.49
+29% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +115%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 451 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IK Brage
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Kalmar
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.19 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
433 Passes 274
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2025 Kalmar Kalmar 2-2 HT 1-0 IK Brage IK Brage İSÇ2
28.02.2021 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 0-0 IK Brage IK Brage İSÇK
10.11.2019 Kalmar Kalmar 2-2 HT 0-0 IK Brage IK Brage İSÇ
06.11.2019 IK Brage IK Brage 0-2 HT 0-1 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
10.03.2013 Kalmar Kalmar 3-0 HT 2-0 IK Brage IK Brage İSÇK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IK Brage
1-3
AWAY Kalmar
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH IK Brage vs Kalmar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar saw off IK Brage 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kalmar as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, IK Brage had 43% of the ball to Kalmar's 57%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Kalmar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for IK Brage and 2.00 for Kalmar.

What was the final score of IK Brage vs Kalmar?

IK Brage 1-3 Kalmar in the Sweden - Superettan on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IK Brage vs Kalmar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kalmar win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split IK Brage 25%, draw 24%, Kalmar 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kalmar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kalmar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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