Holstein Kiel 1-1 Darmstadt 98 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 4 Oct 2025

Holstein Kiel
1-1 HT 0-0
Darmstadt 98
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Holstein Kiel vs Darmstadt 98 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.06
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
28%
2.95
6+ Goals
12%
9.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.32
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
27.0
1/X
9%
12.4
X/1
15%
5.62
X/2
10%
6.33
X/X
6%
5.21
2/1
5%
24.45
2/2
13%
4.0
2/X
8%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 13% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.3pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Holstein Kiel v Darmstadt 98 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Darmstadt 98 EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
1.60/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.29
-5% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
20.0 Crosses 18.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Holstein Kiel vs Darmstadt 98 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Darmstadt 98
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.44 xG 2.47
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
403 Passes 277
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 32
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.01.2024 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 1-2 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel HAZ
30.04.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-3 HT 0-2 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL2
21.10.2022 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 1-1 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
02.04.2022 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 3-1 HT 2-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
23.10.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 1-1 HT 1-1 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL2
23.05.2021 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-3 HT 1-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL2

Holstein Kiel 1-1 Darmstadt 98 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
1-1
AWAY Darmstadt 98
2.67 xG 0.52
61% Ball Possession 39%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 0
477 Passes 278
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Darmstadt 98
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel and Darmstadt 98 shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Holstein Kiel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (59%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 61% of the ball to Darmstadt 98's 39%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 2.67 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Darmstadt 98 led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.00 for Darmstadt 98.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Darmstadt 98?

Holstein Kiel 1-1 Darmstadt 98 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Darmstadt 98?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 41%, draw 23%, Darmstadt 98 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Holstein Kiel), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Holstein Kiel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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