Montana 1-3 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2025

Montana
1-3 HT 0-2
Cherno More Varna
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Bulgaria - 1st Division – 2025/2026

Montana vs Cherno More Varna Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
51%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.16
No
64%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.6pp
51%
Away Win
53%
-2.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.2pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.1pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montana v Cherno More Varna — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montana EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 57%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.51/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/0.85
+62% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
228 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
POST-MATCH Montana vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna beat Montana 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Montana vs Cherno More Varna?

Montana 1-3 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montana vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Montana 26%, draw 23%, Cherno More Varna 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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4 Oct 2025
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