Levski Sofia 3-1 PFC Beroe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
73%
1.27
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.4
No
53%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
75%
-1.4pp
18%
Draw
17%
+1.1pp
9%
Away Win
9%
+0.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
38%
+9.5pp
53%
BTTS No
62%
-9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Levski Sofia EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +14%
1.93/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.45
-6% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +34%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
486 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Levski Sofia
4W-0D-2L
AWAY PFC Beroe
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.07.2025 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 3-2 HT 0-2 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe HAZ
06.04.2025 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 0-1 HT 0-0 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
25.10.2024 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 0-2 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
20.04.2024 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
27.10.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-1 HT 1-1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
23.04.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Levski Sofia
3-1
AWAY PFC Beroe
73% Ball Possession 27%
30 Total Shots 7
13 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Levski Sofia vs PFC Beroe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Levski Sofia beat PFC Beroe 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Levski Sofia as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Levski Sofia had 73% of the ball to PFC Beroe's 27%, shots finished 30-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Levski Sofia had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Levski Sofia and 1.00 for PFC Beroe.

What was the final score of Levski Sofia vs PFC Beroe?

Levski Sofia 3-1 PFC Beroe in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Levski Sofia vs PFC Beroe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Levski Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split Levski Sofia 73%, draw 18%, PFC Beroe 9%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Levski Sofia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Levski Sofia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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